FiveThirtyEight Politics

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight Elections
One Week To Iowa
Friday Special: Iowa
Your Caucus Day Guide
Quick Reaction: Iowa Results
DOC: The Real Dean Scream
New Hampshire's Turn
Quick Reaction: New Hampshire Results
Enter The SCOTUS
A Round Of Buy/Sell/Hold
That Trump Supporter Polling
Super Tuesday Is Here
Breaking Down Super Tuesday
On The Media On Predictions
Cruz Rising
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
Violence At Trump Rallies
Ides Of March Reaction
A History Of Data In American Politics (1891-2016)
What Is Kasich Doing?
Momentum And Misogyny
The Delegate Hunt Begins
A 538 Elections FAQ
Is Trump Blowing It?
Clinton v. Sanders vs. Clinton v. Obama
Start Spreading The News
Nate Silver On Longform
Kasich And Cruz Are Scheming
Stop Trump's Last Stand (Probably)
Trump Steals The (Live) Show
Paul Ryan Isn't Happy
Harry, Neil, And Black Swans
Meanwhile, Downballot
Tighten Up
DOC: Obama And His Pastor
A Third Party's Moment
Goodbye, Primaries
On The Media: Trump And Us
Orlando
Kitchen Table Politics: The Cost Of Caring For Kids
Brexit Polls Are A Mess
Kitchen Table Politics: College For All
Emergency Live-Show Brexit Result Pod
The Model (Live From SF)
Kitchen Table Politics: Good Jobs
The FBI Weighs In
Kitchen Table Politics: Healthcare Costs
It's Not 1968
Kitchen Table Politics: An Earned Retirement
Emergency Podcast: Pence Fever!
Your RNC Primer
RNC: Nate Silver Meets John Dickerson
RNC: Nate And Harry On On Point
RNC Emergency Pod! Boos Cruz
RNC Wrap: Law And Order
DNC Preview: Can The Democrats Get It Together?
DNC: Those Tightening Polls (From On Point)
DNC: Bernie On Board
DNC Wrap: To The General
DNC: Obama's Role
Are You In Love With The Model?
It's Unskew Season
Clinton Republicans
Says Who? Polls.
Forecast Update - Correlated States
Summer's Over
Extra: Enten vs. Polls; Druke vs. Luntz
The Tightening
"I'm The Trump Of Data Journalism"
Baskets, In Context
Emergency Diner Pod: Clinton's Rough Polls
We're On Broadway! (Kinda)
The Senate Forecast Is Live
FiveThirtyEight Elections
Lightning Round: First Debate Preview
First Debate Response
The Voters Part 1 - Republicans
October's First Surprise
VP Debate Extravaganza
The Voters Part 2 - Democrats
"When You're A Star, You Can Do Anything"
Second Debate Reaction
The Voters Part 3 - Undecided
What A Week
What Wikileaks Shows
Third Debate Response
Evan McMullin Is In The Model
DOC: The Real Legacy Of Ross Perot
A Two-Weeks-Until-Election-Day Extravaganza
13 Days Left
12 Days Left
11* Days Left
10 Days Left (Blue Plate Special)
8 Days Left
7 Days Left
6 Days Left
5 Days Left
4 Days Left
3 Days Left (Diner Pod!)
2 Days Left - House And Senate Preview
Bonus: Our Elections Docs
It's Here - Final Election Preview
Long Night; We'll Be Back In The Morning
President Trump
Model Talk Debriefs The 2016 Results
The Transition Begins
Americans Don't Trust Their Institutions
Recount, Really?
Still Processing...
Russian Interference
2016 Final Thoughts
538 + The West Wing Weekly (Live)
Data Under Trump
Trump And The Senate
Trump Vs. The Polls -- Vol. II
The Beginning Of The Trump Presidency
Chaos At The White House
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Battle Ahead
Party Time: The GOP Under Trump
Trump Vs. The Courts
Party Time: Republicans Skeptical Of Trump
Tea Party Parallels
Emergency Podcast: This Russia Stuff
Party Time: The Bernie Sanders Party
A Month Of Trump
Party Time: 'Establishment' Democrats
Party People
Anatomy Of A Scandal
Hot Takedown: Politics In Sports
Trumpcare
Three Polls And A SCOTUS Nominee
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Live From Boise
Filibuster Time
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)
Trump's Paths, Revisited
Georgia's 6th - Live From New York
100 Days
99 Trial Balloons
Emergency Health Care Podcast II
Health Care Winners And Losers
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey
The Scandal Meter
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo
What Now?
Do Democrats Need A Win?
Pittsburgh vs. Paris
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Prepared Testimony
Emergency Podcast - Comey's Testimony
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament
The Base
Trump Under Investigation
The Most Special Special Election
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials
The Health Care Episode
Trump Goes Global
Why Trump Wants Voter Data
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.'s Emails
Six Months In
The GOP's Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
White House Chaos
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
Enter The Grand Jury
Trump's Response To Charlottesville
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
How Trump Talks About Race
Harvey Tests Trump
Immigration Politics
What Happened
Democrats Divided
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Trump vs. The NFL
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
Trump's Response To Maria
Corker Uncorked
Steve Bannon's War
Could Alabama Go Blue?
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
Mueller's First Strike
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Election Day 2017
A Good Night For Democrats
2016 Anniversary Talk
Alabama's Senate Race
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Alabama Is Tied
Congress's Broken Culture
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
The Alabama Election Is Here
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
Lessons From Alabama
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
Who's Running In 2020?
Our Political Journalism Resolutions
The Gerrymandering Project: California
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion
Immigration Showdown
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown
The Three-Day Shutdown
Which Version Of Trump's Presidency Is Happening?
Has Trump Remade The GOP?
What's So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted
The Gun Debate
A Turning Point On Guns?
Does Trump's Mood Matter?
The Most Special Special Election Yet
Emergency Podcast: Rexit
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition
What If Trump Fired Mueller?
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump's Lawyer's Office
The Nightmare Midterms Hack
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire
The Comey Episode
About That Texas Poll
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast
Primary Season Begins
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug
A Democratic Squabble In Texas
A Year Of Mueller
Things Look Less Good For Dems
The Polls Are All Right
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General's Report
The Immigration Flashpoint
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring
The Upset Of The Season
How Swingy Is Roberts?
What Comes Next For Partisan Gerrymandering?
The Politics Of Brett Kavanaugh
Emergency Podcast: It's A Mueller Friday
Trump Meets Putin
Democratic Socialists Are Here To Stay
Russia: A FiveThirtyEight Debate!
"You Can Go Low Sometimes"
This Is Model Talk!
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
What Does It Mean To Be 'Electable'?
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
Debugging The Model
Is The Path Of Trump's Presidency Set?
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
Stop Catering To Idiots
The Senate Forecast Is Live
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
Kavanaugh's Confirmation Is In Trouble
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
Flake News!
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
The Forecasts Are Diverging
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
The Governors Forecast Is Live
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
Debating Our Own House Forecast
How To Judge The Model's Performance
The Final Countdown
A Guide To Election Night
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
Midterms Review
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!
How Our Model Did
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
This Is Mueller Talk!
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
Trump's Turbulent Week
The Brexit Episode
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
Our 2018 Politics Awards
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
How Julian Castro Could Win
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
How Kamala Harris Could Win
What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
The Perot Effect
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich
The Mess In Virginia
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win
National Emergency Podcast
How Bernie Sanders Could Win
All The President's Investigations
Our Best (Or Worst) Show
What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
How Divided Are Democrats?
How Beto O'Rourke Could Win
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
Life After The Mueller Report
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
What Will Biden Do?
The Electoral College Episode
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
The State Of The Democratic Primary
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
How Joe Biden Could Win
Peto Buttichar 2020
Mueller's Letter To Barr
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods
Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
Are Voters Sexist?
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.
The Verdict On The Debates
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Trump's Racist Tweets
Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
Mueller Talks
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
Democrats Battle It Out
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?
"The Best Pollster In Politics"
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
Elizabeth Warren's Comeback
The 2019 Elections
The Winnowing Begins
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
And Then There Were Ten
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
How To Own The Debate
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
The Whistleblower's Complaint
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
Impeachment 101
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
Warren In The Hot Seat
Medicare For Fall
The Taylor Testimony
What Should Republicans Do?
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
Free-For-All In Iowa
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
Is The Party Deciding?
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
The Legal Experts And The Polls
The Primary According To The Early States
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?
The House Impeaches President Trump
Eggnog And Listener Questions
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
The Sanders Surge
When Women Run
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Chaos In Iowa
The Results In Iowa
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Can Bloomberg Win?!
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
Our 2020 Election Priors
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases
What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him
The Data Behind Police Violence
Protests, Then And Now
Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises
The Protests Appear To Be Working
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality
There Aren't Secret Trump Voters
The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election
Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump
It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha
Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns
Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
What We Know About The President's Health
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate
Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
Embrace The Uncertainty
The Most Competitive Races In 2020
How Voting Is Going So Far
The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here
Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree
October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections
How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election
How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020
The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election
Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic
What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us
Final Reflections Before The Election
The Election Isn't Over
Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer
Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency
Biden Is Set To Be The Next President
Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
What Divided The Electorate In 2020
Will Georgia Stay Blue?
Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy
What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?
How To Make Polls Better
The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP
What's The Deal With Pardons?
Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?
Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States
Goodbye To 2020
Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia
What Will The GOP Do Now?
What Led To The Attack On The Capitol
Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment
Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?
The Biden Presidency Begins
Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another
The Final Model Talk Of 2020
Biden's Response To The Pandemic
What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?
What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do
The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument
Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump
How The Crisis In Texas Happened
Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular
What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs
Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?
How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics
Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear
Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?
Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?
How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics
The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically
The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed
Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy
Elections To Watch In 2021
How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?
Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?
Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan
How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer
Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay
Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.
A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority
Biden's First 100 Days
Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas
How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?
Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'
Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?
20 Questions With Nate And Galen
A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death
What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us
The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up
How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party
One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms
How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics
The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections
Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race
What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation
Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions
Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan
What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term
What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020
Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away
A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?
Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling
Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?
The Great Inflation Debate
Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?
What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike
Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive
How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal
Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?
Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns
What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan
Model Talk: How Climate Models Work
The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?
Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days
Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?
The California Recall Election Wasn't Close
Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?
What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections
Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?
How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data
Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?
Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19
The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling
What Happens When Local News Disappears